Swiss Wages Seen Up 2.3% in 2025, Lifting Real Incomes; FX Angle for EUR/CHF

Switzerland’s Federal Statistical Office (FSO) expects nominal wages to have risen by 2.3% in 2025 on average, based on cumulative payroll data, pointing to a solid rebound in pay after 2024’s smaller gains.

Real incomes are set to improve. Earlier economist polls put 2025 inflation around 0.1 to 0.3, while the Swiss National Bank’s latest conditional forecast points to roughly 0.7% for the year, which still implies positive real wage growth for most workers.

Context matters. The FSO confirmed nominal wages rose 1.8% in 2024, so the 2025 estimate marks a stronger advance. At the same time, firms have turned a bit more cautious about the next 12 months, with KOF’s July survey showing private-sector expectations around 1.3% nominal growth, a sign momentum could cool into 2026.

Dollar Falls as Trade Tensions Persist and Fed Signals Rate Cuts

The U.S. dollar slipped for the third straight session on Thursday, weakening against major currencies including the euro and the Swiss franc, as investors reacted to escalating U.S.-China trade tensions and dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials.

China accused Washington of spreading panic over its rare earth export restrictions, rejecting calls from the White House to ease the curbs. Markets viewed this as a sign of deepening strain between the two largest economies.

Swiss Franc in the Spotlight: SNB Meet, Fed-Cut Bets, and Eurozone PMIs

CHF Steadies as Dollar Softens on Fresh Fed-Cut Pricing

The U.S. dollar slipped back into a defensive stance as traders increased bets on another Federal Reserve rate cut, leaving the Swiss franc firm against the greenback and broadly stable versus the euro. With a packed U.S. data slate-housing, durable goods, consumer sentiment, and the Fed’s preferred PCE inflationgauge-any downside surprise could extend dollar weakness and nudge USD/CHF lower, while EUR/USDresilience keeps EUR/CHF anchored near recent ranges.

Dollar Slips on Fed-Cut Bets as Swiss Franc Firms Against Euro and USD

CHF Strengthens While the Dollar Struggles

AUG 28 - The U.S. dollar faltered on Thursday as traders sharpened bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut next month, nudging the Swiss franc modestly higher against both the greenback and the euro. Around mid-session, USD/CHF drifted near 0.8015 and EUR/USD hovered around 1.1640, leaving EUR/CHF broadly steady but soft-biased, a setup that continues to favor the safe-haven franc when policy uncertainty spikes.

Tariff Turbulence Puts Spotlight on the Swiss Franc - How CHF Is Moving Against the Euro and the Dollar

39 % U.S. Tariff Rocks Swiss Watchmakers, but the Currency Story Runs Deeper

Aug 4 - Washington’s shock decision to slap a 39 % import duty on Swiss goods sent Richemont and Swatch shares tumbling as much as 5 %. Currency desks were just as quick to react: USD/CHF spiked toward 0.81, its highest level in a month. Yet despite the dollar bounce, the franc has still edged about 1 % higher against the euro since January, leaving exporters to the EU coping with an unfavourable cost base in a market where watches and machinery sell in euros.