Swiss CPI Surprise Dip Keeps SNB On Hold; FX Focus on EUR/CHF and USD/CHF

Swiss inflation slowed more than expected in October, rising just 0.1% year on year and falling 0.3% month on month, as cheaper food, clothing and travel pulled the headline lower toward the bottom of the SNB’s 0 to 2 percent band. The Federal Statistical Office confirmed the October drop, noting the CPI index slipped to 107.2 points on the month.

Analysts said the miss is not enough to change policy. With inflation still inside target and prior easing working through the economy, the SNB is widely seen keeping its policy rate at 0 percent for now, consistent with the bank’s September hold and recent minutes highlighting comfort with the outlook.

SNB Minutes Signal Steady 0 Percent Policy Rate; Inflation Seen Within Target, Tariff Risks Watched

Oct 23 - The Swiss National Bank’s first-ever published policy minutes show the board saw no need to cut rates at its September 25 meeting, judging that earlier easing is still working through the economy and that inflation should stay inside the 0 to 2 percent band. The account also flags a new risk channel if U.S. tariffs were extended to pharmaceuticals, though the bank notes limited spillovers so far beyond directly hit exporters. Reuters

Swiss Wages Seen Up 2.3% in 2025, Lifting Real Incomes; FX Angle for EUR/CHF

Switzerland’s Federal Statistical Office (FSO) expects nominal wages to have risen by 2.3% in 2025 on average, based on cumulative payroll data, pointing to a solid rebound in pay after 2024’s smaller gains.

Real incomes are set to improve. Earlier economist polls put 2025 inflation around 0.1 to 0.3, while the Swiss National Bank’s latest conditional forecast points to roughly 0.7% for the year, which still implies positive real wage growth for most workers.

Context matters. The FSO confirmed nominal wages rose 1.8% in 2024, so the 2025 estimate marks a stronger advance. At the same time, firms have turned a bit more cautious about the next 12 months, with KOF’s July survey showing private-sector expectations around 1.3% nominal growth, a sign momentum could cool into 2026.

Dollar Falls as Trade Tensions Persist and Fed Signals Rate Cuts

The U.S. dollar slipped for the third straight session on Thursday, weakening against major currencies including the euro and the Swiss franc, as investors reacted to escalating U.S.-China trade tensions and dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials.

China accused Washington of spreading panic over its rare earth export restrictions, rejecting calls from the White House to ease the curbs. Markets viewed this as a sign of deepening strain between the two largest economies.

Swiss Franc in the Spotlight: SNB Meet, Fed-Cut Bets, and Eurozone PMIs

CHF Steadies as Dollar Softens on Fresh Fed-Cut Pricing

The U.S. dollar slipped back into a defensive stance as traders increased bets on another Federal Reserve rate cut, leaving the Swiss franc firm against the greenback and broadly stable versus the euro. With a packed U.S. data slate-housing, durable goods, consumer sentiment, and the Fed’s preferred PCE inflationgauge-any downside surprise could extend dollar weakness and nudge USD/CHF lower, while EUR/USDresilience keeps EUR/CHF anchored near recent ranges.