Dollar Heads for Weekly Drop as Fed Easing Bets Build; Swiss Franc Holds Firm

The U.S. dollar was set for its steepest weekly decline in four months on Thursday, as investors increased bets on further Federal Reserve easing and started to question the greenback’s appeal versus other major currencies.

Dollar Set For Weekly Loss As Data Fog Looms; Swiss Franc Holds Near Highs

NOV 14 - The U.S. dollar was on track for a weekly decline on Friday as investors cut long positions ahead of a heavy backlog of U.S. macro data that will start arriving after the government reopened. The dollar index hovered around 99.1, near a two week low, even though Treasury yields stayed elevated and risk assets had a rough session.

Swiss CPI Surprise Dip Keeps SNB On Hold; FX Focus on EUR/CHF and USD/CHF

Swiss inflation slowed more than expected in October, rising just 0.1% year on year and falling 0.3% month on month, as cheaper food, clothing and travel pulled the headline lower toward the bottom of the SNB’s 0 to 2 percent band. The Federal Statistical Office confirmed the October drop, noting the CPI index slipped to 107.2 points on the month.

Analysts said the miss is not enough to change policy. With inflation still inside target and prior easing working through the economy, the SNB is widely seen keeping its policy rate at 0 percent for now, consistent with the bank’s September hold and recent minutes highlighting comfort with the outlook.

SNB Minutes Signal Steady 0 Percent Policy Rate; Inflation Seen Within Target, Tariff Risks Watched

Oct 23 - The Swiss National Bank’s first-ever published policy minutes show the board saw no need to cut rates at its September 25 meeting, judging that earlier easing is still working through the economy and that inflation should stay inside the 0 to 2 percent band. The account also flags a new risk channel if U.S. tariffs were extended to pharmaceuticals, though the bank notes limited spillovers so far beyond directly hit exporters. Reuters

Swiss Wages Seen Up 2.3% in 2025, Lifting Real Incomes; FX Angle for EUR/CHF

Switzerland’s Federal Statistical Office (FSO) expects nominal wages to have risen by 2.3% in 2025 on average, based on cumulative payroll data, pointing to a solid rebound in pay after 2024’s smaller gains.

Real incomes are set to improve. Earlier economist polls put 2025 inflation around 0.1 to 0.3, while the Swiss National Bank’s latest conditional forecast points to roughly 0.7% for the year, which still implies positive real wage growth for most workers.

Context matters. The FSO confirmed nominal wages rose 1.8% in 2024, so the 2025 estimate marks a stronger advance. At the same time, firms have turned a bit more cautious about the next 12 months, with KOF’s July survey showing private-sector expectations around 1.3% nominal growth, a sign momentum could cool into 2026.