The increase in the US interest rate had no mayor effect on the euro / franc exchange rate.

The central bank is therefore reacting above all to the very good development of the US economy, which has recently shown stable growth. The number of unemployed has also declined to less than 5%, which is virtually full employment from a macroeconomic perspective. This is already the second time this year that the interest rate has been increased in the recent months. In December, the FED raised the interest rates also by 0.25%.

Despite the higher interest rates in the US, and the fact that the ECB's continues its loose monetary policy, the dollar has not really strengthen significantly against the euro. It is feared that the US economy has already exhausted the opportunities for a further increase in the growth rate and the weight will therefore shift towards the EU and the Euro. However, the prospect of further interest rate hikes in the US will support the US dollar.

In the near future the euro-dollar currency pair is likely to be defined rather by political events. In the foreground are the elections in the Netherlands, where the current Prime Minister Rutte struggles for a re-election. The victory of his opponent Wilders could be perceived by many as a trend reversal and thus lead to an increased uncertainty which would have a negative effect on the euro. Other important political decisions that are to be imminent in Europe and will have an impact on the euro are the later elections in France and Germany.

How long in this situation the Swiss National Bank will stick to the current monetary policy is unclear. Despite a good economic development, the pressure on the National Bank from the economy and politics remains a major cause for a further weakening of the Swiss franc. One can assume that the SNB will stick to the current monetary policy, at least until the political situation in Europe has been clarified.