SNB Minutes Signal Steady 0 Percent Policy Rate; Inflation Seen Within Target, Tariff Risks Watched

Switzerland’s policy rate has stood at 0 percent since June, and market surveys suggest it could remain there well into 2026 as long as inflation behaves. That view was reinforced by recent coverage noting the SNB’s preference to hold steady and by economist polls ahead of the September decision.

Trade backdrop and tariffs

Washington’s 39 percent tariffs on a broad basket of Swiss goods in August dented exports to the United States, although headline damage has been uneven by sector and month. Pharmaceuticals were largely exempt, and September trade data showed some resilience, yet the risk of tariff extension to pharma is on the SNB’s radar.

FX angle: EUR/CHF and USD/CHF

Minutes that rule out a quick return to negative rates create a stable rates backdrop for the franc. USD/CHF dipped after the release as traders leaned into the idea of a patient SNB with inflation contained, while broader dollar drivers remain in play. For EUR/CHF, a steady SNB means relative euro-area growth and ECB expectations do most of the heavy lifting on direction. UBS analysis around the June cut also argued that large-scale FX interventions look less likely under the current setup, which keeps the cross more data-sensitive than in prior cycles.

What to watch next: SNB communications on tariff spillovers, CPI prints versus the 0 to 2 percent target band, and euro-area data that could nudge EUR/CHF out of its recent ranges.