Euro Slips, Swiss Franc Surges Ahead of ECB’s “Super Thursday”

Swiss Franc Remains a Safe‑Haven Magnet

Intensifying trade tensions and mounting global growth worries have kept demand for safe‑haven assets high, propelling the Swiss franc almost 8 % higher versus the U.S. dollar since early April. On Wednesday, the dollar hovered around CHF 0.817 —within sight of the decade‑strong 0.81 mark. The franc’s strength underscores its role as a barometer of risk sentiment and poses fresh challenges for Swiss exporters coping with a firmer domestic currency.

Dollar Weakness Persists Despite Yield Support

The greenback continues to decouple from rising U.S. Treasury yields, weighed down by uncertainty over President Trump’s evolving tariff strategy. Contradictory policy signals—including threats of a 200 % duty on European wine, cognac, and other goods—have eroded confidence in U.S. growth prospects. Against the yen, the dollar recovered to 142.6 after briefly touching a seven‑month low, while the dollar index hovered around 99.6 yet remained on track for a fourth consecutive weekly decline.

Broader Currency Moves

• **EUR/USD:** Support at 1.1280; resistance near last week’s 1.1470 peak.

• **USD/CHF:** A sustained break below 0.81 could open the door to 0.79, while resistance sits near 0.83.

• **GBP/USD:** A softer U.K. inflation print capped sterling at $1.32.

• **AUD & NZD:** Commodity‑linked units remain under pressure amid tariff worries, even as Australian employment data surprised to the upside.

Looking Ahead

With the ECB decision, ongoing U.S.–EU trade negotiations, and a long Easter weekend all converging, traders are preparing for heightened currency volatility. The Swiss franc’s trajectory will be closely watched as a gauge of global risk appetite, while the euro’s post‑meeting path will hinge on the ECB’s tone regarding future policy.