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EUR Exchange Rate On a Track to Four-Month Highs

EUR Exchange Rate On a Track to Four-Month Highs

17 July 2020

The euro exchange rate was well on a track for four-month high on Friday as investors hopes a European Union summit will deliver decisions on recovery fund.

EUR Exchange Rate on Friday

             The common currency price was rallying on Friday morning, showing signs of hitting the level of four-month high against the US dollar. It was up 0.4$ to 1.1425 dollars, close to the 1.1452 price from Wednesday which was its highest since the beginning of pandemic in Europe and financial crash that followed, back in March. Investors were eager to buy euros as they are hopeful some vital decisions on recovery fund will be made on a European Union summit. Such fund would help get EU out of recession, as well as deepen ties between its member countries. If the progress was made on the summit, experts see the euro hitting even the price of 1.15 dollars.

No Outcome Yet

             The outcome of the summit on the recovery fund is expected late in the evening, if at all. Whether there is made an agreement between members of the EU or not, both situation will have huge impact on the EUR exchange rate once trading resumes on Monday. According to exerts, markets appear to be constructive on the common currency as they highly anticipate the progress on the recovery fund, if not today, then at least over the weekend. Such decision would also support other European currencies, not only euro – for instance the Scandinavian ones.

What the Progress Would Mean for the Euro?

             If the European Union goes ahead with its recovery plan, implications will be long lasting for the exchange rate of euro. Agreeing a deal on the recovery fund would put euro as an attractive reserve currency, providing central fiscal capacity than can adjust to adverse shocks on financial markets, and thus make monetary union more stable. However, many investors doubt the agreement will be reached just now, with another meeting needed to have conclusion on this matter being seen as more likely option. The summit could be extended to Sunday if talks prolong and no deal is agreed on.

EUR Gains Versus GBP

             Meanwhile, against the British pound the euro was also up by 0.4% to 0.9102 pence. GBP was heading for its biggest weekly fall against the USD in a month. The uncertain situation of British economy, as well as ongoing Brexit talks and still high cases and death toll of COVID-19 in the country have pushed the British pound lower in exchange rate versus major other currencies. It means GBP is on track to be crowned the worst-performing currency of G10 this week. Weak economic data could trigger some action from the Bank of England – there are fears that introduction of negative interest rates is on cards.

USD’s Situation

             USD at the end of the week was heading not only for gains versus GBP, but also the Japanese yen and Swiss franc. The dollar exchange rate versus CHF was at 0.9410, close to the highest point since July 3. Meanwhile, against JPY it stood at 107.11 yen. The US dollar was also up by 0.38% versus Norwegian crown – at 9.3085, but still close to the lowest price since March. It fell against the Sweden’s crown by 0.43% to the point near four-month highs. USD is demand, as investors are not hungry for risky moves with US-China relations getting worse.

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