EUR/CHF Rises Above 0.94 as Buying 5,000 EUR Costs a New High of 4'722 CHF

Buy EUR Reaches a New High

The latest move takes the Buy EUR rate above the previous August peak of 0.9434.

At 0.9444, buying 5,000 EUR costs 4'722 CHF, compared with 4'713.5 CHF on 3 September and 4'717 CHF at the previous mid-August high.

For workers tracking EUR/CHF, euro CHF, CHF to EUR, EUR to CHF or the current euro exchange rate, this means the brief improvement seen earlier this week has already been reversed.

EUR/CHF Moves Back Above 0.94

The broader market also recovered after Thursday’s decline.

The ECB reference rate moved back above 0.94 CHF per euro on 4 September, after falling below that level following stronger Swiss economic data a day earlier.

The important development is therefore not another set of Swiss GDP or inflation figures, but the speed with which the euro recovered. The franc initially benefited from stronger Swiss data, yet that support was not enough to keep EUR/CHF below 0.94.

Markets Are Already Looking Beyond the September ECB Decision

Expectations for the ECB are also changing.

A September rate increase is already widely expected, but some major banks are now looking further ahead. J.P. Morgan and BNP Paribas have added another 25-basis-point ECB hike in December to their forecasts.

This is a new element for EUR/CHF. Until recently, September was widely viewed as a possible final step in the current tightening cycle. If markets increasingly expect European rates to stay higher for longer, the interest-rate gap with Switzerland may remain supportive for the euro.

The SNB policy rate remains at 0%, making the relative return on euro-denominated assets an important background factor for the pair.

German Industrial Orders Surprise to the Upside

Germany also delivered a fresh economic signal.

Industrial orders increased by 2.5% month on month in July, significantly above expectations. Domestic orders were particularly strong.

The headline result should be treated with some caution because large transport-sector contracts contributed heavily to the increase. Excluding major orders, the underlying picture was weaker.

Still, the data add to recent evidence that Germany’s economy is showing more resilience than earlier in the year, which may give the ECB more confidence that tighter monetary policy can be maintained.

Rate Comparison Still Matters

For a 5,000 EUR exchange, the rates shown on ExchangeMarket.ch give the following costs:

ExchangeMarket.ch: 4'722 CHF

PostFinance: 4'763 CHF

BCV: 4'782 CHF

Migros Bank: 4'782.5 CHF

The difference ranges from 41 CHF compared with PostFinance to 60.5 CHF compared with Migros Bank.

Practical Takeaway

At 0.9444, buying 5,000 EUR costs 4'722 CHF, setting a new high in the recent series.

The main change since yesterday is that EUR/CHF has recovered above 0.94 despite the stronger Swiss data published on 3 September. At the same time, markets are beginning to consider whether the ECB tightening cycle could extend beyond the expected September hike.

For CHF earners, the key question is therefore shifting from whether the ECB will raise rates next week to how long the interest-rate gap between the euro area and Switzerland may remain wide.