Buy EUR at 0.9417 as Swiss Economic Outlook Improves Ahead of ECB September Decision

Euro Costs Move Higher Again

At 0.9417, buying 5,000 EUR costs 4'708.5 CHF, compared with 4'700.5 CHF at the 0.9401 rate from 25 August.

The latest cost remains 8.5 CHF below the recent high from 14 August, when the Buy EUR rate reached 0.9434 and the same exchange cost 4'717 CHF.

For workers tracking EUR/CHF, euro CHF, CHF to EUR, EUR to CHF or the current euro exchange rate, the latest move shows that euro purchases remain close to the more expensive levels seen during August.

Swiss Economic Outlook Improves

Fresh data provided a positive signal for the Swiss economy.

The KOF Economic Barometer increased to 106.7 in August from a revised 104.2 in July, moving further above its long-term average. The improvement was supported by stronger signals from manufacturing, services, foreign demand and employment.

Swiss labour-market data also remained solid. Employment increased by 2.0% year on year in the second quarter, while the number of vacancies rose and companies continued to report positive hiring expectations.

This creates an interesting EUR/CHF backdrop: economic indicators in Switzerland are improving, but the franc remains relatively weak against the euro compared with the levels seen earlier this summer.

ECB Signals That July Was Only a Pause

The outlook for European interest rates remains another important factor.

Minutes from the ECB’s July meeting showed that policymakers viewed the decision to keep rates unchanged as a pause rather than the end of the tightening cycle. Another rate increase could still be required if the inflation outlook does not improve sufficiently.

Markets are therefore focused on the ECB meeting in September, with the deposit rate currently at 2.25% and another 25-basis-point increase still under consideration.

The contrast with Switzerland remains clear. The Swiss National Bank continues to hold its policy rate at 0%, keeping the interest-rate gap between the euro area and Switzerland relevant for EUR/CHF.

Eurozone Lending Remains Resilient

Recent ECB data also show that higher rates have not stopped credit growth.

Loans to euro-area companies increased by 4.4% year on year in July, up from 4.0% in June. Household lending growth also edged higher to 3.1%.

This suggests that the euro-area economy is still absorbing tighter monetary conditions without a sharp contraction in credit demand. Combined with earlier improvements in business activity, it may give the ECB more room to remain focused on inflation.

At the same time, fresh inflation signals from France and higher German import prices show that price pressure has not disappeared completely.

Rate Comparison Still Matters

For a 5,000 EUR exchange, the rates shown on ExchangeMarket.ch give the following costs:

ExchangeMarket.ch: 4'708.5 CHF

PostFinance: 4'750 CHF

BCGE: 4'762.5 CHF

BCV: 4'767.5 CHF

Migros Bank: 4'770 CHF

The difference ranges from 41.5 CHF compared with PostFinance to 61.5 CHF compared with Migros Bank.

Practical Takeaway

At 0.9417, buying 5,000 EUR costs 4'708.5 CHF. Euro costs have increased again since 25 August, although the latest Buy EUR rate remains below the peak seen in mid-August.

The next direction for EUR/CHF will depend on whether stronger Swiss economic data can provide more support for the franc and whether the ECB follows through with another rate increase in September. For CHF earners, the interest-rate gap between the ECB and SNB remains one of the key factors to watch.